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相場を続けていく上で一番重要なことは資金管理
資金管理(マネーマネジメント)と聞いてあなたは何を思い浮かべますか?
相場は上がるか、下がるか、買うか、売るか、50%、2分の1の確率ですね。
トレードとは確率と資金管理のゲームです。
相場でお金を失わない方法を覚えましょう。
相場の動きは自分の意志ではどうすることもできませんが、トレードでの行動やあなたが取るリスクの大きさは自分でコントロールできます。
相場は自分の利益を最大化するために世界中の人が自分のためにお金を持って集まってくる金融市場です。
そんな自分のエゴ丸出しみたいな場所で生き残るには、相場をビジネスとして考えなければいけません。
このブログを読んでいるあなたは相場をギャンブルとして捉えていないはずですから、しっかりと資金管理して行きましょう。
相場をこれからも継続していく上で、手法よりも何よりも一番大事なのが、この資金管理です。
損切りは必要経費、必要コスト
例えば、あなたがこれから飲食店を経営するとします。
私は焼鳥が好きなので焼鳥屋さんを例にします(笑)
経費には、ざっと思いつくもので家賃、人件費、水道光熱費、食材仕入れ、燃料費(炭等)、広告宣伝費、通信費、交通費等がかかります。
経費の合計が毎月200万円かかるとします。
売上げがこの経費200万円を上回らないと店は赤字になります。
当然ですね(笑)
日経225先物で言えば、この経費の部分って何でしょうか。
経費は「インターネット等の通信費、新聞・書籍代、情報商材購入費、パソコン、周辺機器」と言いたくなるのはわかります。
でもちょっと待ってください。
間違ってはいないです(笑)
しかしもっと大きな経費は?
そうです。
損切り(ロスカット)した金額ですね。
損小利大は常に意識
このロスカット金額をいかに減らせるか。
損切りを最小に抑えて、利益を大きく伸ばす。
「損小利大」という考え方。
相場で生き残っていくためには、このロスカットといかに上手く付き合っていけるかにかかっています。
熟練したトレーダーでも実行できる人は少ないです。
「損切り」って何でそんなに難しいのでしょうか。
自分が間違えたことを認めることになるからです。
誰しも損切り=負けを認めたくないですからね。
私も絶対嫌です(笑)
人一倍負けず嫌いの性格なのでこれまで余計にそうさせて来ました。
人は一度持った自分のポジションに執着してしまいます。
ポジションを保有する根拠がなくなったとしても、あなたも夢を見続けたいですよね。
希望を捨てたくないですよね。
損切りを実行するのは本当に難しいのです。
でも損切りは避けて通れません。
相場はビジネス
相場をビジネスとして考えるなら、先ほどの例に出した焼鳥屋さんのように必ずかかる経費=ロスカットの部分をしっかり受け入れる必要があります。
そのため、多少の連敗をしても生き残れるようなトレードをしていかないといけません。
相場で勝ち続けるには、いかにうまく負けるか。
負け方を知らないと相場に参加する日数は短いと認識しましょう。
負けることは現実に何度もありますので、「正しく負ける」ことは生き残るために絶対必要となります。
自分だけが負けないと考えることは妄想でしかありません。
大負けしてはいけないのです。
いかに上手に小さく負けるかです。
野球に例えると1000本ノックの感覚です。
1000回エントリーして、550回勝つ。
450回は負けるけど、小さい負けで済む。
これならトータルプラスで終われると思いませんか?
1回の勝ち負けを気にし過ぎないというのも大事です。
毎回勝って、勝率100%を目指そうとするから精神的に疲れたり、怖くてエントリーできなくなったりします。
でも勝っても負けても検証はしっかりして次のトレードに活かしていきましょうね。
焼鳥屋さんと同じく、年間売上(利食い)が2,600万円、経費(損切り)2,400万円、利益200万円のイメージですね。
決めたロスカットは絶対守る
そのため、エントリー前からロスカット価格は必ず決めておいて、設定したロスカット位置は絶対ずらさない。
入れていたロスカット注文は絶対取り消さない。
これもの凄く大事です。
私は今まで何度もずらしまくり、取り消しまくりでした(笑)
だから何度も退場しています(笑)
私のように退場したくなければ、必ずロスカットルールは守りましょうね。
相場の神様も大負けしている
退場と言えば、酒田五法、ローソク足の考案者と言われ、酒田、大坂、江戸での米の商いで莫大な富を得たとされ、大坂、堂島の相場師、本間宗久(1724-1803)も、酒田から出て来て江戸での相場では大負けし、当時で数千両を失っています。
酒田と違って、江戸の相場は将軍様のおひざ元であり、財力に物をいわせる富豪がひしめいていました。
打ちのめされた宗久は、故郷酒田に戻り、負けた原因を考え、「相場は相場に聞け」と「罫線 + ファンダメンタル」で今度は、経済の中心地大坂の堂島に場所(当時は江戸を上回るスケール)を移し大成功。そして堂島より大きくなった江戸に移り、連戦連勝でまたまた大成功。
莫大な富を得ました。 相場の神様でも最初は大負けしています。
またラリー・ウィリアムズ(1942-)アメリカの有名な投資家。
1960年代初期にトレードを始め、トレードの優位性を見つけようとしましたが、1969年にCBOT元会員ビル・ミーハンに会いアドバイスをもらうまで上手く行きませんでした。
1987年のロビンスカップで12ヶ月で1万ドルを113.76万ドル(113.76倍)にし、驚異的リターンを出しコンテストで優勝し世界にその名をとどろかせ、未だにこの記録は破られていません。
トレードを始めて25年以上も経ってからのことです。
相場の神様、本間宗久も1度は破産、ラリー・ウィリアムズも上手くいくまでに25年以上もかかっています。
安易な気持ちで臨んでも上手くいかないということです。
またラリー・ウィリアムズは「マネーマネジメントは、トレードにおいて最も重要なルールである。トレンドや価格ももちろん重要だが、自分の資金をどう扱うかを分かっているかどうかは最も大切なことである」と言っています。
これまでの例でもわかるように投資でお金を儲けるということは、稼ぐ方法よりも損切りをマスターすることです。
今はピンとこないかも知れませんが、私のように退場を何度も経験しているとメチャクチャ重要なことがわかってきます。
正しく負ける
勝ち方を学ぶより、負け方を学ぶ方が大事です。
ロスカットの金額は投資資金の2%までに必ず設定しましょう。
例えばあなたが日経225先物に使える全資金が100万円だとします。
100万円を失うと退場が待っています(笑)
1回のトレードで100万円×2%=2万円
2万円までの損失は受け入れ、2万円以上は必ずロスカットします。
100万円の資金で2万円のロスカットなので、利益目標は2万円以上でないと、エントリーしてはいけません。
小さい利益しか望めない場合に、ロスカットの金額の方が大きいと利小損大トレードになります。
9勝1敗、勝率9割なのに最後の大きな1敗でこれまでの利益を吐き出し、トータル損失になる場合もあります。
勝ちトレード
9回×1万円=9万円
負けトレード
1回×10万円=10万円
9万円-10万円=▲1万円
いわゆるコツコツドカンですね。
リスク:リワード
次にリスク:リワードの考え方です。
ロスカット2万円:利益目標4万円の場合はリスク:リワードは1:2のトレードになります。
リスク:リワード1:2のトレードなら勝率40%でも勝てます。
勝ちトレード
4万円×4回=16万円・・・①
負けトレード
2万円×6回=12万円・・・②
①-②=4万円
トータル4万円の利益です。
満玉張るな
日経225先物miniの場合、手元に100万円の証拠金があれば、mini1枚当たりの証拠金が144,00円の場合、「買い」も「売り」も6枚までポジションが持てます。
これは資金をMAX使って「買う」「売る」ということです。
これは絶対に駄目です。
資金をMAX、レバレッジ最大まで使ってはいけません。
リスクを取り過ぎないでください。
相場の格言で「満玉(マンギョク)張るな」という言葉があります。
これを守れないとすぐに退場しますよ。
相場の世界では、9割の人が1年以内に相場の世界からいなくなると言われています。
あなたも「相場の世界では1割の人しか勝てない」というのを聞いたことがありますよね。
最初はシュミレーション売買
デモトレードで利益が出せるようになり、実トレードに移行する場合は、まずは最小単位(mini1枚)でエントリーしてください。
そして勝てるようになり、コンスタントに利益が出せるようになってきてから、少しずつ枚数を増やしていけばいいのです。
枚数を増やすのはいつでもできます。
相場はゼロサムゲームです。
あなたの負けが他の方の利益になり、他の方の損失があなたの利益になります。
私が負けた時は「今日は見ず知らずの知らないオジさんにまた1万円ずつ配ってしまったー!!」とイメージしています(笑)
その方が何か悔しくないですかー?
パソコンやスマホ画面の数字のマイナスだけで終わらせず、負けを具体的にイメージして実感する。
常に画面の向こう側には人がいることを意識してトレードしています。
そうすることで相場参加者の心理も考えていきます。
だんだん資金管理の話しからソレていきそうなので、今回の記事はここまでにします(笑)
PS:この資金管理とマインドの記事は、メチャクチャ重要なことを書いていますので、繰り返し何度も何度も何度も読んでくださいね。
この記事が参考になったという方は是非ポチっとクリックお願い致します。
↓ ↓ ↓ ↓
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